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Post by Stanley75 on Mar 12, 2024 22:46:22 GMT
This is what I find extraordinary - a mere 7 point gap between 14th and 23rd! Just think the whole thing is still wide open:  |
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Post by hubble on Mar 12, 2024 23:35:24 GMT
Gone for 49. I think because there are so many teams in the mix and most in the mix have to play at least a few of their fellow strugglers, it won''t end up with a crazy high total needed.
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Post by 2Loftus on Mar 13, 2024 11:11:39 GMT
Update after last night's Birmingham game. Have reordered the columns high to low, left to right. Birmingham's form is pretty dire after Tony Mowbray was sidelined by illness, and they look a strong possibility for the drop. Also added the average league position of opponents over the remaining games. Blackburn seem to have the most difficult run-in by that criteria, Swansea the easiest.  |
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Post by coneysboots on Mar 13, 2024 11:24:02 GMT
Excellent analysis, but it does show our survuval a lot more comfortable, than we all know it will be   |
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Post by Hitman34 on Mar 13, 2024 13:59:45 GMT
Same as hubs.
49 with our goal difference should be enough.
That means 10 more points needed.
It’s imperative that we beat brum and Sheffield. 6 it’s there. Happy for a point against Sunderland, so that leaves us looking for one win from either Swansea, Leeds, Coventry or Plymouth.
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Post by acricketer on Mar 13, 2024 15:07:07 GMT
Birmingham will only get 2 more points. We are staying up!
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Post by stainrodisalegend on Mar 13, 2024 15:53:02 GMT
Wow just clocked Blackburn home to Millwall final game and penultimate game Brum host Huddersfield. Going to be tighter than a moth's arse. Unless Mowbray gets off his sick bed sharpish Brum look bang in trouble to me. Not only did they lose but their acting manager had a real moan after the game about how they lack leaders etc (Roberts limped off injured oc) and how terrible the passing was (well done Dozzell, finally playing well for us).
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Post by 2Loftus on Mar 13, 2024 16:22:00 GMT
Birmingham will only get 2 more points. We are staying up! Haha, yes, that's the problem with simply extrapolating from form of the last 6 games - there's no true analysis going on, weighting opposition or home/away fixtures. In fact Rotherham have been on zero points predicted for a few weeks as they've been on a losing run for ages, so I've been dropping in one point in the points won over their last 6 games. Form would suggest that both Sheffield Wednesday and Huddersfield will escape, so two of the rest likely to drop. I think Birmingham look prime candidates, and Blackburn are on a bad run and have the most difficult run-in... We have a run of five games coming up which we are probably favourites to win Birmingham (H) and Sheff Weds (H) or have a decent chance of picking up points - Sunderland (A) Swansea (A) and Plymouth (A). Eight or nine points from those would see us almost safe... |
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Post by 2Loftus on Mar 13, 2024 16:49:56 GMT
Just made a comparison based on form over the last 10 games - sees us finishing 15th (or higher) - I've not gone further up the table than 15th.  |
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Post by hal9thou on Mar 13, 2024 17:00:27 GMT
Overall points is a mighty tough call guessing game in such a tight league. Compared to the prem, the chances of a bottom six club beating a top six on any given day are massively high.
I remember posting up a while ago that two of the bottom three at Christmas would survive. That looks likely.
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Post by 2Loftus on Mar 13, 2024 17:05:08 GMT
Opta prediction of final positions, made 12 May
15 - Sunderland
16 - Millwall
17 - Plymouth
18 - Blackburn
19 - Stoke
20 - QPR
21 - Birmingham
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22 - Huddersfield
23 - Sheff Weds
24 - Rotherham
I think we'll finish higher than 20th.
And I'm with hal9 in that I don't think all of the current bottom 3 will go down.
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Post by Shania on Mar 13, 2024 17:24:43 GMT
A bit off topic, but for the future I will never complain about a mid table position again. With one exception perhaps; If a good coach chooses to leave us for a better placed club.
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Post by Corbray on Mar 13, 2024 17:34:39 GMT
A bit off topic, but for the future I will never complain about a mid table position again. With one exception perhaps; If a good coach chooses to leave us for a better placed club. its been exciting at least. if we stay up it'll be one of my favourite seasons tbh. the lows of ainsworth, not winning at home for 32 years and not scoring at the loft end. the highs of marti breathing new life into the side and giving us hope, confidence and a brighter future if we stay up. not loving it atm but at least i'm having fun lol. |
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Post by Shania on Mar 13, 2024 19:28:50 GMT
A bit off topic, but for the future I will never complain about a mid table position again. With one exception perhaps; If a good coach chooses to leave us for a better placed club. its been exciting at least. if we stay up it'll be one of my favourite seasons tbh. the lows of ainsworth, not winning at home for 32 years and not scoring at the loft end. the highs of marti breathing new life into the side and giving us hope, confidence and a brighter future if we stay up. not loving it atm but at least i'm having fun lol. That`s also a way to see it.  |
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Post by Stanley75 on Mar 13, 2024 22:18:06 GMT
How many points will be needed to survive this season I've been meditating on this question long and hard for the past couple of days, and I have come to the conclusion that I have absolutely no farking idea. |
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Post by 1973ranger on Mar 15, 2024 10:51:26 GMT
51
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Post by 1qprdk on Mar 15, 2024 11:30:39 GMT
So technically that's 48? |
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Post by West Acton on Mar 15, 2024 13:08:30 GMT
Home fans down stairs against Birmingham 👌🏽 good decision
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Post by 2Loftus on Mar 15, 2024 16:32:27 GMT
Tweaked the spreadsheet ahead of Sunderland. Now includes 6 and 10 match form and number of points needed to be mathematically safe.  |
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Post by acricketer on Mar 15, 2024 17:55:51 GMT
So technically that's 48? 47 points will be enough to stay up . It could depend on goal difference! |
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Post by croydoncaptainjack on Mar 16, 2024 11:33:24 GMT
Wow, impressive admin. I just remembered I needed to lock this poll and it was done already.
Nice one.
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Post by 2Loftus on Mar 16, 2024 12:36:12 GMT
Swansea v Cardiff early kick off.
A Cardiff win would see them in touch with a play-off place and keep Swansea in the relegation mix.
Fingers crossed...
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Post by Hitman34 on Mar 16, 2024 17:32:50 GMT
Same as hubs. 49 with our goal difference should be enough. That means 10 more points needed. It’s imperative that we beat brum and Sheffield. 6 it’s there. Happy for a point against Sunderland, so that leaves us looking for one win from either Swansea, Leeds, Coventry or Plymouth. There’s our first point, as expected. Just 3 wins now lads. Brum, weds and Plymouth. |
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Post by West Acton on Mar 16, 2024 17:51:02 GMT
Next four games define our season.
2 wins and draw might be enough 3 wins and think it’s comfortable.
Have to win both home games.
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Post by stainrodisalegend on Mar 16, 2024 18:31:44 GMT
Changes week by week but Sheff Wed are slipping back and Brum, Stoke and Huddersfield look to have plateaued at best. Am starting to revise down again what might be needed.
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Post by Rangers77 on Mar 16, 2024 18:48:10 GMT
Next four games define our season. 2 wins and draw might be enough 3 wins and think it’s comfortable. Have to win both home games. Looks like we have an extra point, for now, thanks to GD. However bad we've been, we've never go tonked. Other than Watford away. |
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Post by stainrodisalegend on Mar 16, 2024 18:51:52 GMT
Next four games define our season. 2 wins and draw might be enough 3 wins and think it’s comfortable. Have to win both home games. Looks like we have an extra point, for now, thanks to GD. However bad we've been, we've never go tonked. Other than Watford away. which is also crucial for confidence: imagine how Sheffield and Stoke are feeling tonight… |
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Post by acricketer on Mar 16, 2024 19:31:20 GMT
One closer to the 47 we need!
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Post by Stanley75 on Mar 16, 2024 19:41:06 GMT
Next four games define our season. 2 wins and draw might be enough 3 wins and think it’s comfortable. Have to win both home games. Looks like we have an extra point, for now, thanks to GD. However bad we've been, we've never go tonked. Other than Watford away. Indeed. Only plus today is the point and another clean sheet. |
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Post by stainrodisalegend on Mar 17, 2024 12:38:45 GMT
Agree with your post Stanley apart from the word “only” - another point; a clean sheet and improved goal difference are significant
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