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Post by 2Loftus on Mar 17, 2024 18:02:46 GMT
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Post by James1979 on Mar 17, 2024 20:20:50 GMT
How we ranking the final 8 games from toughest to easiest? I think depends on whether Leeds are up and Coventry have nothing to play for but assuming they do:
1. Coventry away
2. Leeds home
3. Hull away
4. Brum at home
5. Wednesday at home
6. Plymouth away
7. Swans away
8. Preston at home
I think 10 points….
2 from first 3, 3 from 4 and 5, 1 from Plymouth, 1 Swans, 3 Preston
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Post by Corbray on Mar 17, 2024 21:14:39 GMT
tbh the most important games to win are the ones around us. i'd take a drubbing at leeds for a 1-0 win against birmingham. all of those teams around us are must not lose games.
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Post by jfrabbit on Mar 18, 2024 18:35:16 GMT
Crazy that despite our turnaround in style and form we’re literally one loss away from being second bottom.
Bit worrying that we’ve just not managed to pull away.
Next few games are the make or break matches.
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Post by West Acton on Mar 18, 2024 19:42:55 GMT
Crazy that despite our turnaround in style and form we’re literally one loss away from being second bottom. Bit worrying that we’ve just not managed to pull away. Next few games are the make or break matches. I think part of the problem is just how far adrift we were and the ground we’ve made up. |
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Post by Ginger Ninja on Mar 18, 2024 20:08:23 GMT
Crazy that despite our turnaround in style and form we’re literally one loss away from being second bottom. Bit worrying that we’ve just not managed to pull away. Next few games are the make or break matches. I think part of the problem is just how far adrift we were and the ground we’ve made up. That, and all the fuckers around us seemed to have found form at the same time |
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Post by acricketer on Mar 18, 2024 20:13:48 GMT
We're lucky to be where we are. Unfathomable how we can beat Leicester and look comfortable and then look like muppets against the shittiest of the shittest.
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Post by alanwycombe on Mar 18, 2024 20:16:23 GMT
We're lucky to be where we are. Unfathomable how we can beat Leicester and look comfortable and then look like muppets against the shittiest of the shittest. That’s the problem, never follow it up. |
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Post by Stanley75 on Mar 18, 2024 20:29:54 GMT
We're lucky to be where we are. Unfathomable how we can beat Leicester and look comfortable and then look like muppets against the shittiest of the shittest. That’s the problem, never follow it up. Fear not chaps. Sunderland was the first of our next four game unbeaten run. Spot the pattern under Marti:  |
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Post by acricketer on Mar 18, 2024 20:36:34 GMT
I'm looking at 16 Dec to 14 Jan. You know we are equally capable!
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Post by Stanley75 on Mar 18, 2024 21:20:22 GMT
That was the exception to the rule!  |
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Post by jfrabbit on Mar 19, 2024 15:11:51 GMT
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Post by West Acton on Mar 22, 2024 7:17:31 GMT
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Post by stainrodisalegend on Mar 22, 2024 15:25:35 GMT
Be interested to know whether this is simply based on points per game to date or if it weights it according to the difficulty of upcoming fixtures? Blackburn arguably have the toughest run in so reckon they are a bit more at risk than suggested here. Stoke play a lot of teams fighting relegation which you could argue either way. In contrast Brum's remaining fixtures don't look too bad from their perspective. |
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Post by West Acton on Mar 29, 2024 21:15:34 GMT
Our GD effectively makes us five points ahead of Sheff Wed and Huddersfield.
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Post by acricketer on Mar 29, 2024 22:05:23 GMT
4 points needed to be safe!
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Post by jfrabbit on Mar 30, 2024 6:34:14 GMT
4 points needed to be safe! Need more than that. 21 points available and can't presume other teams below and around us won't have a couple of results on the bounce plus, we need to win games too. Need to be aiming for 50-51 IMO. |
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Post by West Acton on Mar 30, 2024 8:26:25 GMT
Sheffield Wednesday key game. Win that and we move three points away from them by seven points with five games left. They would have to take points from over half of them and probably need three wins can’t see that happening.
If we beat them I would confidently say that’s one side we don’t have to worry about anymore. Then just need keep Birmingham and Huddersfield below us.
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Post by Corbray on Mar 30, 2024 8:30:30 GMT
with our 4pt cushion we only need 7pts from 7 games imo. more than doable with the fixtures we have left.
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Post by stainrodisalegend on Mar 30, 2024 12:07:32 GMT
Would be v surprised if it’s 50 points to stay up now. A lot of the relegated sides play each other. Think Huddersfield and Brum have one win in six, Blackburn not much better. Plymouth badly out of form. Draw at Swansea and win at home to Sheffield Wed (no gimme that one tho) and we should be more or less home and hosed
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Post by itsonlyagame on Mar 30, 2024 12:50:40 GMT
No way will it be 50 points.
Because of our superior goal difference 47 should be enough, so a win and a draw.
If we manage that then two out of the bottom four teams would need to manage 3 wins or two wins and at least 3 draws from their last 7 games for us to drop into the bottom 3. That’s a massive ask.
Not over yet but winning yesterday was monumental.
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Post by Bill on Mar 30, 2024 15:37:30 GMT
4 points needed to be safe! Need more than that. 21 points available and can't presume other teams below and around us won't have a couple of results on the bounce plus, we need to win games too. Need to be aiming for 50-51 IMO. Agree minimum 52 for me,have to aim for as many we can get. |
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Post by stainrodisalegend on Mar 30, 2024 15:45:04 GMT
Two different questions:
Should we aim for 50+ points to be absolutely sure and also to build momentum into next season? Yes.
Will 50+ points prove necessary come the end of the season? Almost certainly not
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Post by Corbray on Mar 30, 2024 16:28:34 GMT
No way will it be 50 points. Because of our superior goal difference 47 should be enough, so a win and a draw. If we manage that then two out of the bottom four teams would need to manage 3 wins or two wins and at least 3 draws from their last 7 games for us to drop into the bottom 3. That’s a massive ask. Not over yet but winning yesterday was monumental. lots of teams are in bad form but it was only recently that all the bottom half teams were picking up results week on week and that could happen again at anytime imo. heck, just a few weeks ago we were all saying that you'd need 50+ points to stay up lol. i think 50 would guarantee survival. one team will drop off between now and the end of the season but others will step it up and start winning. i think it'll be birmingham and wednesday being the other teams to go down tbh. |
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Post by Stanley75 on Mar 30, 2024 19:55:39 GMT
Bottom line is I don't see much point in setting points targets (no pun intended).
Aim should be to just go out and win as many games as possible (be they home or away) until we're safe.
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Post by itsonlyagame on Mar 30, 2024 20:00:26 GMT
No way will it be 50 points. Because of our superior goal difference 47 should be enough, so a win and a draw. If we manage that then two out of the bottom four teams would need to manage 3 wins or two wins and at least 3 draws from their last 7 games for us to drop into the bottom 3. That’s a massive ask. Not over yet but winning yesterday was monumental. lots of teams are in bad form but it was only recently that all the bottom half teams were picking up results week on week and that could happen again at anytime imo. heck, just a few weeks ago we were all saying that you'd need 50+ points to stay up lol. i think 50 would guarantee survival. one team will drop off between now and the end of the season but others will step it up and start winning. i think it'll be birmingham and wednesday being the other teams to go down tbh. I’d bet my house that 50 won’t be needed but as Stan’s just said we just need to focus on trying to get as many as possible. |
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Post by West Acton on Mar 31, 2024 14:54:36 GMT
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Post by stainrodisalegend on Apr 1, 2024 10:51:29 GMT
Five teams near the bottom are just imploding.
Look at the 6 game form guide:
Rotherham 0 wins in 6
Brum 0 wins in 6
Blackburn 0 wins in 6
Plymouth 1 win in 6
Huddersfield 1 win in 6
Total games played: 30
Total games won: 2
A few other stats:
Huddersfield last 4 games: 1 point
Brum last four games: 0 points
Plymouth: last 17 games: 3 wins
Blackburn: last 21 games: 2 wins
For us to go down now, Huddersfield, Plymouth, Blackburn AND Brum would ALL need to go on a good run (one caveat to that is Sheffield Wednesday who are doing pretty well and think will give us a really tough game).
Is it feasible ALL those teams go on a run?
I just don't see it.
The idea that we HAVE to get 50 points to survive is probably a good thing to tell ourselves but in reality its for the birds.
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Post by Hitman34 on Apr 1, 2024 11:22:22 GMT
Two wins is enough.
One after today 😀
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Post by stainrodisalegend on Apr 1, 2024 12:01:09 GMT
Two wins is enough. One after today 😀 Win today and we are more or less safe |
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