Ilias Chair

I really do not understand why there's so much suspicions and conspiracy theory around Chair's injury. I actually can't imagine a worse 'smokescreen' to disguise an impending transfer than 'He's injured and we don't know how long for, it's a bit worrying.' Hardly going to drive the price up is it?

I don't think there's any chance they've been spending money that's dependent upon Chair being sold before the deal is signed and sealed. And if there was a deal in place why on earth would it not just be announced? It's a football transfer not a sordid affair ffs.

I think it's pretty simple; the club would love to sell him this window as he's at a stage of his career where his value is likely to be its maximum. Clubs have been put off by the legal proceedings but I've not doubt conversations will have taken place. And now he's inured.

If anything this injury is likely to be getting in the way of a transfer, not covering it up.

It's also worth mentioning that Swiss Ramble has previously estimated that our losses for seasons 2021/2022 and 2022/2023 from a P&S perspective were £20m and £15m, which would have given us a budget of roughly a £3-£5m loss for the 2023/2024 season under profit and sustainability rules. Now I have absolutely no idea how we would have managed that given we only sold Dickie and the income from all the stadium sponsorships were rumoured to be minimal, relatively.

But, if we just blindly assume that we didn't fail FFP last year means that the last two years' losses will have been £15m and £5m. For those of you that struggle with maths that equals a £20m loss for two thirds of the period we're currently playing in. We're allowed to lose £39m in that period which in theory gives us a budget of a £19m loss this season. More importantly than that contextless number though; it would mean we could afford to lose $14m MORE than we did last year. Since last year we've released about three and a half thousand players from the first team and development squad (which will have added up), including Willock, Begovic and Dozzell, all of whom would have been on at least average money. all that added up could easily equate to about a £2m cost saving from those salaries. Then of course we've sold Armstrong for a pretty penny.

With all that in mind I can see how we could afford to lose close to £20m more this year than last year and not fail FFP, so I further cannot see why they'd be paying silly buggers with Chair's transfer / injury.

Now just for full disclosure, I'm not encouraging them to spend all of that money nor am I under any impression that they would. Not because they can't afford to or because they don't want to... But if they did, they'd create another massive lump in the three year rolling cycle, just like they did the after Eze was sold. Then, when that £5m loss from last year drops off the cycle, they'd find themselves in a similar position to last year, having to reduce losses by about 75% almost overnight. I'm sure they've learned from that lesson and I'm sure Nourry would never repeat them anyway. But still... with all said, from what I can see, last year's extreme austerity doesn't need to continue into this year and in fact, actually becomes an asset for this and next year in terms of how much we can afford to spend.

If there is going to be a window why can't the useless, pointless wanker fucks running the game have it open a day after the season ends and close a week before the season begins? With another month between the 15th December and 15th January.

Problem is that I don't think Saito and Dembele can play in his position outright. Andersen could possible do a job, but again that depends on whether the rest of the midfield don't drop to deep.

I stand corrected. When I wrote the post, I had them both down as mainly wingers.

absolutely this spot on.

If I’m a buying club I’m not purchasing him until the community service is complete.

Rumours JCS is off he’s not playing or training.

Plus we have no idea what questions were asked of Marti.

i think £5-6m is probably what he's valued at but i don't think that's a reflection of how important he is to our side. he'd be very difficult to replace on and off the pitch as he's been here now for 7 or 8 years so has the respect of the players and staff and understands the club. it's very hard to replace that mindset or whatever as it's something that takes years to build.

we're not in a position where we have to sell chair so for me any sale should be for an offer to good to turn down rather than just a good fee.

Good points made all round so I would conclude that we really need to be lining up a younger replacement because Chair will not be with us forever and as a high effort player will not keep up his performance level as long as "quieter" players.

So the signings of people like Dembale and Saito, 5 or so years younger and hopefully with near equivalent skill levels are key for the future. While Chair may be our best player he stands out due to the absence of competition or assistance in his role. But he is still in a different class to someone like Eze or he would have been snapped up by the PL long ago. So finding a replacement may not be as difficult as many think and a replacement does not have to be a copy of Chair but can have other skills to Chair and compensate for some of our shortcomings.

Wait and see time again with him and also with JCS - sitting out as he is leaving or a twinge in the hamstring again and resting ?

We were all sweating on the Eze money because we've become used to having to cut costs at every single turn in order to comply with P&S rules last year. Assuming we did that, it is no longer a concern as we have a huge hole in the cycle having replaced a £20m annual loss with a £5m (ish) annual loss.

The only pressure I can see to sell Chair / JCS / Paal or even Armstrong is the determination to not lose assets of some value for nothing like we did with Willock this summer.

In all honesty any large windfall from Chair or Eze if anything complicates things with P&S. It gives you a huge chasm between your operating losses and your reported losses. If you spend all the way to the £39m allowable loss, you'll always run into issues eventually when the transfer fee drops out of the cycle, as it isn't amortised. The trouble is reinvesting that money adds significantly to your operating losses in the form of high wages.

The best / only way to reinvest that money would be to spend it in lumps without impacting the operating losses too much. I guess the only way really to do that would be spending relatively large transfer fees on players that don't push the average wage up; either because they're coming from a financially poorer division and / or they're very young. I think Nardi, Dembele, Saito and Varane all fit into that bucket.

On the face of it I would say increasing your operational income which you can depend upon each and every year is the only realistic way to sustainably increase your palatable costs. Selling players for big money gives you a huge and sudden income and only two years to spend it AND get it back off the books which feels like a horrible way of managing a strict budget.

Hard to see much of any possible Eze money going on players. Hoos said at the last meeting I attended for RFI that the stadium alone costs £8m a year to run. He didn’t state/wasn’t asked what constitutes ‘the stadium’ but I’m guessing rates, services, pitch maintenance, box office and shop staff(?), catering(?), security etc. - anything that isn’t to do with playing staff and the training ground? Message seems to have changed from ‘can’t do’ to ‘can do, but limited’. I feel they must have reckoned on getting more money in than Armstrong.

You have basically said you agree with me but completely disregarded what I said.

You only line up - as in sign - younger replacements if he is going - unless something changes he isn’t going.

On what do you base your assessment that he won’t keep up his levels? He has been doing so for four or five years, 40
games a season.

How do you know the two young players have the same skill levels? Sure, they look good. Everyone can look good on Youtube. Combined their Championship experience to date is zero games against 200 odd for Chair.

Other players don’t just come to prominence because your best player leaves - that’s a hope not a strategy.

So because he is not as good as Eze we should get rid - baffling.

Finding a replacement is easy? Well other than Willock, who had injury issues and was also a bit of a tosser, who else have we found who is even close to him in the last 4 years? So maybe we will find someone better, but given we survived by the skin of our teeth last time, you would have to be pretty confident / complacent to want him gone this season. Luckily I think Marti takes a different view.

Why not dig out Smyth? He’s not exactly as good as Eze either. In fact why not dig out the entire squad if that is the benchmark?

Don’t know if you were going to games under Aimsworth but be interested to know who you thought put in as much of a shift? Good luck relying on those “quieter” players. Dozzell was pretty quiet. So was Field tbh. So was pretty well most of our players.

I don't think that's accurate tbf Stains, as a) he didn't quote you, and b) he was responding to about 10 other posts (before yours) following his initial question.

That's not to negate your other points btw. 

The important word in my sentence you quoted above is "hopefully".Until we get players in and test them out we will not know.

Is it premature to debate Chairs future? Well at the start of the window or even before many were forecasting he would be a target this window, his desire for the PL was used, maybe incorrectly ) in his court case and the matter was raised with Marti during his press conference. Plus with 2 weeks of the window to go the club could still be facing making a decision very soon so I cannot see the harm in having a discussion - or do we only discuss things that have already happened.?  

Robin, I actually agree with you. I questioned if it's premature to discuss his future in respect to Saito and Dembele being his potential replacements, for the simple reason that we've not seen them play yet!

Discussing Chair's future in general? Yes, that's absolutely on the table (pardon the pun!). Indeed that debate has been happening for a long time on here.